Der Extended Forecast von vorgestern mündet in Level 2 (fast Level 3, nur Tornado-Parameter zu unsicher) in Deutschland mit großräumiger Level 1-Umrandung.
Auslöse am Nachmittag im Bergland mit Option von einzelnen Zellen die zu den Abendstunden ins Flachland ziehen können. Für Eigenentwicklungen im Flachland deckelts noch zu stark, Energie wäre reichlich vorhanden! Wird dann für morgen ein Thema!
Die Nordhälfte Deutschlands wird wohl einen denkwürdigen Unwettertag erleben...
A level 1 was issued for northern Spain, southern France, Switerland, Austria, northern Italy, Slowenia, northern Croatia, Hungary mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION
Pyrenees, southern France, Alps, northern Balkans
Mid-level ridge will cover this area and large-scale lift will be weak. However, rich low-level moisture is present that is overlapping with steep lapse rates especially in the western portions, but diurnal heating is also expected to cause instability in the east. CAPE will range around 1500 J/kg in the afternoon. Initiation is forecast over the mountains in the noon and afternoon. Pulse storms and multicells are forecast to produce large hail and excessive precipitation. Local severe wind gusts are not ruled out. Later in the day, clusters of storms may also spread into the lowlands, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts and also excessive precipitation. Storm activity will be rather isolated and widespread severe weather is not forecast.
