Skywarn Austria Forum

A level 2 was issued for northern Austria to Czech Republic and south-western Poland mainly for excessive precipitation, large or very large hail, severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent tornadoes.

A level 2 was issued for northern Italy, Austria, eastern Switzerland mainly for excessive precipitation, large or very large hail and to a lesser extent severe wind gusts and tornadoes.


DISCUSSION

East Switzerland, northeast Italy, Slovenia, Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, southern Baltic States

Substantial overlap of rich low-level moisture and steep lapse rates is present along a frontal boundary from northern Italy and Austria towards northern Poland. Forcing is expected due to warm air advection and thunderstorms will be possible along the front during the night and on Thursday morning according to latest models. Outflow boundaries of these storms may travel into central and southern Poland, central Czech Republic, and the southern Baltic States. Despite weak QG forcing, these outflow boundaries may support initiation of further storms during the day. Main limiting factor is that remaining clouds and cold pools cause large CIN what inhibits initiation, especially across western Poland. If diurnal heating is strong, widespread severe weather can result in northern Poland.

Further south-west, increasing QG forcing is expected to affect northern Italy, spreading northward into the Alps and Czech Republic. A very moist air mass will allow for high CAPE again. Storms are likely to develop especially over the mountains, moving northeastwards.

Deep layer vertical wind shear increases to the west and north, where supercells are forecast, capable of large or very large hail. As 0-3 km vertical wind shear is also strong, it is possible that storms merge to MCSs and form bow echoes. Severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation are possible in particular with such systems, but also along the southern slopes of the Alps due to numerous storms and backbuilding systems. Tornadoes are possible especially from northern Austria to Czech Republic and northern Poland given strong low-level vertical wind shear in the warm air advection regime.

Further south-east, vertical wind shear is weaker with also better low-level mixing what will reduce the chances of initiation. However, storms that can ride outflow boundaries may become quite intense, producing large or very large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive rain.

Bürgler87 hat geschrieben:Entgegen der Meinung vieler Modelle haben wir ungehinderte Einstrahlung. Von Westen wirds so schnell nicht zuziehen, im Gegenteil, momentan der Osten OÖ abgeschattet durch Eisschirm. Könnte die Brisanz durchaus verstärken.

Andi.W hat geschrieben:Bei mir sind die Gewitter drüber gezogen , Regen hat eingesetzt
Nichts dramatisches , schöner Landregen

Ich frage mich aber wann soll es heute noch heiss werden , aktuell 20,4 °C
Wenn ich da aufs Radar schaue, kommt da noch etliches vom Süden rauf
Fehleinschätzung der Wetterlage

marcus_wien hat geschrieben:Kräftiger donner aus südwest

Genauso wie vorgestern in wien .. wurde auch die heutige wetterlage sowohl von gfs als auch den wetterdiensten in der prognose falsch vermeldet

Orf hat es aber schon berichtigt !

Die wetterlage scheint sehr kompliziert zu sein ...

Andi.W hat geschrieben:Wie es aus schaut , wird sich die Unwetterlage wohl weiter in den Osten verschieben .
Eventuell St.Pölten - Graz ostwärts

markus43 hat geschrieben:

Andi.W hat geschrieben:Wie es aus schaut , wird sich die Unwetterlage wohl weiter in den Osten verschieben .
Eventuell St.Pölten - Graz ostwärts

Wenn dem so ist san ma froh ... kann ganz weit im Osten runterkommen bzw am besten gar nicht!!!