Skywarn Austria Forum

Herfried hat geschrieben: ↑

Montag 29. Oktober 2018, 08:07

Sehe leider worklicj hinreichend labil, paar hundert CAPE im SO kommende Nacht, irre Scherung... ob T...? Sicjer aber Risiko.von Fallwindorkan im großen Stil, glaub das braucht Forecast.

During the overnight hours (until 06Z) ...

... the cold front shifts east, it crosses most of the Adriatic Sea and it impacts the CNTRL / E Ionian Sea until 06Z. The most likely scenario seems to be a southward building V-shaped MCS to enter both sea areas with excessive rain being the dominant risk (maximized along the coasts of the SE Adriatic Sea). Especially for S Italy an augmented overnight tornado risk exists with stronger CAPE signals and ongoing extreme shear (plus better chances for discrete convection). Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail can occur with more discrete activity.

Non-severe WAA convection spreads far NE and probably all the way to S Poland. The lightning areas were expanded accordingly.
We expanded the level 2/level 1 areas far east towards Slovenia and W Hungary as an active cold front passage is forecast during the night. CAPE decreases gradually inland, but extreme shear and dynamics assist in an ongoing nocturnal damaging wind and tornado threat!
Given amount of shear, even a signficant tornado event is well possible over extreme SE Austria to Slovenia and extreme NW Croatia.