Heute wird die Lage als besonders brisant eingeschätzt
Valid: Sun 07 Jul 2019 06:00 to Mon 08 Jul 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 06 Jul 2019 21:33
A level 3 was issued across NE Italy, Slovenia, N Croatia and N Bosnia mainly for damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail and excessive rainfall.
LG, Harald... N Italy towards W Romania ...
A severe weather outbreak is forecast over the area given overlap of 15 - 25 m/s of DLS with 1000 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, yielding high probabilities of severe weather in any convective storm that forms. Scattered to widespread coverage of storms is forecast from NE Italy to Romania with cold front serving as a lift factor of virtually uncapped airmass. Coverage of storms becomes more questionable over NW Italy, given the fact that cold front does not reach this area and initiation will likely depend on the local topography.
Abundant convective activity may already be ongoing over the Alpine range and over N Italy / Slovenia on Sunday morning. Given the environment, this activity may already be severe and may impact the consequent development over the northern part of the area. As day progresses, further rounds of severe convective storms are forecast. It is likely that isolated supercells will form on the Alpine and N Appenines foothills in the early afternoon to evening hours and progress SE-wards, merging into one or more convective systems. High res NWP currently suggests that one such system may cross from NE Italy towards the Adriatics and another one from Slovenia towards Croatia, N Bosnia and Serbia. Towards the late evening and night hours, storms are forecast to reach and/or initiate over Romania.
Large to very large hail will accompany supercells, while well organised systems, including bow-echoes, may produce multiple swaths of damaging wind gusts. Tornado threat will be low initially given weak low level shear, but may increase towards the evening with strengthening wind field around the Adriatic Sea. Level 3 is introduced for the region where widespread storm activity is simulated in high CAPE and strong shear parameter space.