Skywarn Austria Forum

Verbreitet Schauer und Gewitter über Österreich

Bereits ab den Vormittagsstunden werden heute Montag im Westen erste Schauer und Gewitter erwartet. Diese breiten sich langsam Richtung Osten aus, wo auch die Intensitäten zunehmen sollten. Am stärksten werden die Gewitter im Mur- und Mürztal so wie im steirischen Randgebirge bis ins Grenzgebiet Burgenland / Niederösterreich ausfallen (oranger Warnbereich). Lokal können hier Sturmböen, kleinkörniger Hagel, Starkregen und Überflutungen auftreten. Am Abend lässt die Gewittertätigkeit nach, letzte Schauer sollten in der Nacht abklingen.

Forecaster: Johannes Kahr (jfk)
Gültig von: 16.05.2022 – 09:00 Uhr
Gültig bis: 16.05.2022 – 22:00 Uhr
Erstellt am: 16.05.2022 – 08:30 Uhr

A level 1 was issued for eastern France, Benelux, Germany and the Alpine region for excessive convective precipitation and to a lesser extent hail and severe wind gusts.

The UK, France, Benelux, Germany and the Alpine region

Showers and isolated elevated storms will be ongoing Monday morning along the frontal boundary across the UK, France, Benelux, southwestern Germany and the Alpine region. As the day progresses and the frontal boundary moves northeastward, shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage and become at least partly surface based. However, storms will remain elevated across the North Sea due to the cold surface water.
The convection will be trigged by the lift from the frontal boundary combined with solar heating. Showers and storms will also form by mountain-valley circulations over the Alps.
Moisture pooling along the frontal boundary with mixing ratios locally over 10 g/kg will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in connection with the frontal boundary, locally slightly higher. Low deep layer shear, moist sounding profiles with quite low LCLs and preciptable water locally in excess of 30 mm indicate a risk for very heavy rains with these storms with a flash flood threat.

In some spots DLS of 10-15 m/s will make it possible for cells to organize into clusters and/or lines with risk of hail and strong to severe wind gusts.

Behind the front some showers and storms are expected to form across England, Ireland and perhaps also France during Monday afternoon. Convection might struggle to form in France due to weaker lapse rates and some dry air at low- and midlevels.
A couple of hundreds of MLCAPE and 10-18 m/s could generate some multicells with risk of hail and strong wind gusts in these areas. However, the convection does not look to be vigorous enough and coverage to be extensive enough to warrant a level 1.

During the evening and night to Tuesday showers and storms will weaken and become elevated as the frontal boundary will continue eastward into southern Denmark, southwestern Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and southwestern Romania, with a diminishing wind and flood threat.

Forecaster: ROSBERG