ECSS 2013 Vortrag: Verification of thunderstorm forecasts at ESTOFEX

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Mittwoch 7. August 2013, 09:41

Wie sieht die Trefferquote und Verlässlichkeit der Schwergewittervorhersagen von ESTOFEX (European Storm Forecast Experiment) aus? Hier sehr ihr eine Auswertung.

ECSS 2013 Vortrag: Verification of multi-categorical thunderstorm forecasts at the European Storm Forecast Experiment over the period 2009-2013

Oscar van der Velde, Pieter Groenemeijer, Helge Tuschy, Christoph Gatzen, Johannes Dahl, Oliver Schlenczek, Tomas Pucik, Marko Korosec, Georg Pistotnik and Thilo Kühne

Poster im PDF-Format:
http://www.essl.org/ECSS/2013/programme/poster/191.pdf

Abstract:
The European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX) has been making forecasts of thunderstorms and accompanying severe weather for most of Europe for more than 10 years. The forecasts consisted of three severe weather threat lines as well as one thunderstorm line. The latter allowed only a “yes/no” forecast of thunderstorms in an area. The verification of these dichotomic lightning forecasts was presented at ECSS 2007. In mid 2009 ESTOFEX switched to the use of two thunderstorm probability lines, tentatively marked “15% probability” and “50% probability” of thunderstorms within 40 km from each location. Treating the areas between the lines as three categories separating areas with very low, medium and high probability, the present verification aims to: 1) quantify the observed mean frequency of occurrence in each class over the entire region, by counting for all forecasts all grid points with and without lightning in each of the three probability categories. 2) quantify the observed frequency of lightning per grid cell over time when it was included in each class, which allows mapping of biases. 3) study the overlap in probability classes by histograms of the number of grid cells per interval of percentage of lightning occurred over the times it was included in a probability class. 4) study seasonal performance and 5) the consistency among forecasters. Similar procedures can be used for the verification of threat levels 0, 1, 2 and 3 for convective severe weather phenomena (damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation) using the ESSL European Severe Weather Database.
Zur Info: Die ECSS (European Conference on Severe Storms) ist eine alle zwei Jahre stattfindende Veranstaltung des ESSL (Eoropean Severe Storms Laboratory), bei der sich Meteorologen aus Europa und weiteren Kontinenten bei Vorträgen, Postersessions und im Rahmenprogramm austauschen können.
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