Die aktuelle ESTOFEX-Einschätzung ist da und verspricht eine sehr brisante Lage:
LG, HaraldAs the frontal boundary stalls over the range, diurnal heating of moist airmass will yield 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE along the southern slopes of the Alps by the afternoon hours. Storms will be initiated by an upslope flow forced by the heating of the slopes. Well organised storms, including supercells are forecast given the combination of weak southeasterly surface flow with 15 to 20 m/s of westerly flow near 500 hPa. Large to very large hail, as well as isolated severe wind gusts and excessive rainfall may accompany these storms. A level 2 is introduced in the corridor, where convection allowing models simulate the highest likelihood of supercell tracks.