Skywarn Austria Forum

A level 1 and level 2 are issued for S Austria, NE Italy and Slovenia for large hail, excessive convective precipitation and to a lesser degree severe convective wind gusts.

... Austria, N Italy, Slovenia ...

Synoptic lift ahead of the eastern cut-off low and orgraphic lift of upslope / upvalley circulations allow convective initiation also along the southern flank of the Alps in a fairly strong kinematic environment with 20 m/s unidirectional 0-6 km shear. Convective initiation is more likely towards the NE, but there it may happen too early to allow more CAPE than a few hundred J/kg. These storms will likely struggle to organize and become longer-lived.
Towards afternoon, an "Alpine plume" of steeper lapse rates will establish and move SE-ward onto the adjacent forelands, and secondary storms will likely propagate towards the increasing CAPE reservoir. Since synoptic lift departs the area in the afternoon, it is unclear how far this propagation series can proceed. CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg should still be consumable in S Austria and W Slovenia, while the even higher CAPE values on the Italian side could remain largely untouched. A small level 2 highlights the best overlap of all ingredients, where multicells and a few supercells are likely. The main risks are large to isolated very large hail and heavy rain, the latter especially in case of backbuilding or orographic anchoring. In addition, a few severe downbursts are not ruled out.
Convection will quickly die off in the evening.

Crakil hat geschrieben: ↑

Freitag 23. Juli 2021, 16:53

Niederschlagsschleier mit Hagel steht westlich der Mur! Zugrichtung: Süd bis Südost.

Update: Keine Körner größer als 1 cm und der Großteil des Niederschlags ist zum Glück Regen.

Update 17:10: Die neue Zelle (Zugrichtung SO) hat sich schon wieder aufgelöst. Die ursprüngliche Zelle (Zugrichtung S) lebt noch.