Ein erstes Gewitter ist westlich von Vrhnika (etwa 20 km westlich von Ljubljana) entstanden.An overlap of low to moderate CAPE with fairly strong vertical wind shear (0-6 km bulk shear ~20 m/s) and veering profiles (0-3 km storm-relativ helicity on the order of 100-300 m^2/^2) is adequate for multi- and supercells with some 2-4 cm sized hail events. However, convective initiation will happen rather late (after 15 UTC) or may in some regions even fail against the strong cap established by the EML. The time frame for surface-based storms is limited. The bulk of the activity will likely shift into the evening and night, when synoptic lift further increases ahead of the deepening central European cyclone. By then, the severe weather risk is lower and partly shifts from large hail to excessive rain in case of upscale growth or repeated rounds of storms. Due to these remaining uncertainties, a large level 1 seems to be the best solution for now.
ARSO-Webcam Ljubljana-Bežigrad, Blickrichtung W:
LG, Harald