ESTOFEX sogar mit LVL 2 für Österreich:
A level 2 was issued across Austria for very large hail, to a lesser extent for excessive convective precipitation and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued surrounding the level 2 area with the same hazards but with a lower extent.
DISCUSSION
The Alpine region
During the night and Sunday morning the shallow cold front will reach the northern range of the Alps and trigger some rainshowers and thunderstorms. After that daytime heating brings temperatures up to around 30 degrees Celsius in the valleys of the level 1 and 2 areas. Dewpoints are expected to be around 18 degrees Celsius. Mid-level lapse rates of 6 to 7 K/km combined with around 12 g/kg low level specific humidity results in MLCAPE amounts of 1000 to 1500 J/kg over the area, with the highest values across central Austria. Deep layer shear is expected to be around 15 m/s across the region. However, low-level wind field is expected to be modified due to alpine pumping and valley winds coming in from the southern Alps. Thus, DLS can locally increase to 20 m/s.
Storms are expected to form in the afternoon south of the stationary cold front over the Alps and move east. Large hail is the primary risk for severe weather. A very large hail event cannot be ruled out on an isolated supercell which benefits from stronger inflow of moist air thanks to valley winds. Secondary risks are severe wind gusts due to localized downbursts and high rain amounts due to persistent storms connected to the complex orography. Storms are expected to weaken after reaching the flatlands east of the Alps due to higher CIN.
There is some uncertainty regarding the storm coverage since some high-resolution models only show sparse CI within the level 2 area.
Quelle: ESTOFEX (
https://www.estofex.org/)
