...nachdem es auch in den USA nun länger gedauert hat, dass die "Golf-von-Mexiko-Energie-Pumpe" in Gang kommt, geht es anscheinend in den nächsten Tagen mit dem ersten gröberen "Outbreak" los.
Die erste Lage mit einer klassischen Dryline bildet sich, die dann von einer KF aus Westen "überrollt" wird.
Heißt:
- feucht-warme Luft aus dem Golf von Mexiko
- trocken-heiße Wüstenluft aus den Wüstengebieten Nevada/New Mexico
- fast idealer Jet über dem betroffenen Gebiet (WSW), der sich mit der
- Bodenwind aus S bis SSO trifft ergibt:
Furchtbar hohe RICHTUNGSSCHERUNG bei großen Energiemengen...
Viel Energie + hohe Scherung + Dryline = BUMM...
Es ist ein guter "Klassiker" - und so ziemlich ALLE Chaser werden sich auf dieses erste "richtige" Chasing stürzen.
Im 4-8- Tages Outlook des NWS sind bereits jetzt die gefährdeten Gebiete eingezeichnet:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI APR 05 2013
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WHILE RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE SWRN PORTION OF
THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST. THE WRN TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY
MID-WEEK AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. BY THIS TIME...SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EWD TOWARDS
THE MS VALLEY. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING
BENEATH A STOUT EML...A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP.
DESPITE AVERAGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES BY D5-6...INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RENDER A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GREATEST DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH PRIMARILY
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ON D5 AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE...AN
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM AND DEVELOP EWD TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY WITH PRIMARY RISKS BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ON
D6. PRIOR TO D5...A LOCALIZED BUT ENHANCED RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL/FEW TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT
INTERSECTION EXPECTED TO BE INVOF NWRN KS ON MON EVENING.