A level 2 was issued across the N Alps and adjacent lowlands mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, and to a lesser degree excessive rainfall.
... N Apennines, Alps ...
Stronger mid-tropospheric flow across this area will yield moderate to high values of 0-6 km bulk shear, with the highest values just to the N of the Alpine range and to the E of the Apennines. Across the latter region, the 0-6 km bulk shear will even exceed 25 m/s with increasing hodograph curvature towards the evening hours. The whole region may encounter severe storms as a diffuse mid-tropospheric trough approaches the area, but there are 3 areas with enhanced severe weather threat:
1/ NW Italy: The strongest forcing is forecast across this area with a potential for repetitive storm development across the S Alpine foothills. Thus, excessive rainfall will be the highest severe weather risk, followed by large hail from some right-moving supercells.
3/ N Alps and forelands: Models seem to be in rather good agreement concerning the development of a cluster of storms in the afternoon hours and its movement towards the E/NE in an environment favorable for well-organised storms with 0-6 km bulk shear around 20 m/s. The cluster of storms may consist of some transient supercells and line segments with upscale growth toward the evening hours. Both large hail and severe wind gusts are likely with the storms. Upscale growth may continue in the late evening and early night hours as the system reaches SE Czechia and SW / W Slovakia, possibly traveling to Poland in the prevailing SW-ly flow.
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